Spring market update

The housing market is traditionally at its peak in Spring, however, the ending of the Stamp Duty holiday on the 1st of April and the economic uncertainty generated by Trump’s tariffs have meant that the market is a little quieter than it normally is.

Many commentators had, though, been predicting prices could fall in the aftermath of the Stamp Duty rise, but once again the market has proved more resilient than expected and they have softened rather than fallen and, although activity has come down from recent highs, it is fairly much in line with long term averages.

Nationwide is reporting that prices remained flat in March, Rightmove’s show a 1.1% rise and Halifax’s figures have a small monthly drop of 0.5%.

Although Rightmove’s figures appear a bit higher than the others, they are based on the latest asking prices and sellers tend to price optimistically when coming onto the spring market.

Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove says: “So far this year the property market has remained stable and resilient despite the global turbulence and uncertainty. The data suggests that this is set to continue in the short term at least, as there are positive statistics for home-moving activity as the market heads into Spring.

“The number of sales being agreed is 9% higher than at this time in 2024, and the number of new sellers is now 8% ahead of this time last year. Both are positive signs for continued market activity after stamp duty increases at the start of April.”

And Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, is similarly upbeat about the outlook for the sector:

“Activity is likely to pick up steadily as the summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.

“The unemployment rate is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if Bank Rate is lowered further in the coming quarters as we and most other analysts expect.”

All the major indices, though, note that the supply of new housing to the market is increasing, with Rightmove saying buyers have the widest choice of properties in ten years. It means, in order to sell, the current advice is to price your house competitively from the very outset or it will not sell and will quickly go stale.

HOUSE PRICES AND STATISTICS

Despite some quite wide variation between the monthly figures, all the indices remain in positive territory on an annual basis.

Nationwide: Mar: Avg. price £271,316. Monthly change +0.0%. Annual change +3.9%.

Halifax: Mar: Avg. price £296,699. Monthly change -0.5%. Annual change +2.8%.

Land Registry: Jan: Avge. price £291,397. Monthly change +0.2%. Annual change +4.8%

Zoopla: Feb: Avg. price £267,500. Annual change +1.8%.

Rightmove: Mar: Avg. price £371,870. Monthly change +1.1%. Annual change +1.0% (asking prices on Rightmove)

BUY-TO-LET

According to Zoopla, the average monthly UK rent is now £1,284, up 3% from this time last year. That’s the lowest rate of growth for 3.5 years and less than half that of a year ago (7.3%). This slowdown reflects a narrowing of the supply-demand imbalance that has driven rapid rent increases since the pandemic.

Zoopla, however, is reporting that the number of available rental homes has increased by 11% over the past year while demand has fallen by 17%. Despite that, competition remains intense, with 12 renters chasing every available property - double pre-pandemic levels but significantly below its peak level between 2022 and 2024.

There are, though, substantial regional variations, from a rise of just 1.1% in London to a 6.3% rise in the North East and 9% in Northern Ireland. The difference between the cities is even more pronounced, with Nottingham seeing a 1.2% decrease and Newcastle experiencing a 6.2% increase. More affordable satellite towns are seeing the fastest growth, with Blackburn (10%), Stoke (9.6%), and Rochdale (9.3%) leading the market.

Looking ahead, Zoopla predicts rental demand will continue to exceed supply, though to a lesser extent than in recent years. One of the key drivers of demand is net migration, which has now dropped by 20% from 906,000 to 728,000, a trend which is expected to continue as Labour tightens its immigration policies.

Affordability, though, will constrain any further rental inflation, with Zoopla predicting modest growth of 3-4% in 2025, with slower increases in major cities but faster growth in more affordable markets.

If you are thinking of investing in a property, give us a call at Phillip Arnold Auctions - 020 8799 3880. Or, to see our latest properties visit our website.

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